Within the universe of doable instruments to struggle local weather change, it’s laborious to think about one that may be extra politically poisonous than a tax on cheeseburgers. You may as nicely put a tax on puppies, ice cream and even enjoyable. And but that cheeseburger tax could be a key to maintaining catastrophic international warming at bay.
Think about a fantasy future Earth by which kindly aliens or wizards eradicate fossil fuels in a single day, changing each gasoline tank, energy plant and jet engine on the planet with inexperienced options. Would this imply the top of worrying about local weather change? Sadly, no. And the explanation, primarily, is these cheeseburgers.
Livestock farming is a dynamo of greenhouse-gas emissions, contributing roughly 18% of the worldwide complete, within the type of carbon dioxide, methane from cow burps and nitrous oxide from fertilizer. This isn’t to say the related deforestation, air pollution and biodiversity loss, all of which additionally warp the local weather. Even when each different supply of warming gases vanished in a single day, meals manufacturing would nonetheless generate greater than sufficient to push the planet nicely previous 1.5C of heating above pre-industrial averages. And meat and dairy farming contribute the majority of these emissions.
It’ll most likely not shock you to study that Individuals are world-champion meat-eaters. Every American, on common, consumes about 280 kilos of meat per yr, second solely to Hong Kong. Individuals in poorer nations eat perhaps 10 kilos of meat throughout every journey across the solar. The U.S. is the world’s third-biggest beef eater and its sixth-biggest devourer of rooster. To fulfill its said targets of limiting international warming to 1.5C, the U.S. must slash its meat consumption by 82%, in accordance with a latest estimate by the non-profit group Compassion in World Farming. That would go away Individuals consuming about as a lot meat as folks in East Timor.
This appears … unlikely. From time to time, Republicans fire up their base by merely pretending that President Joe Biden, Consultant Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or another Democrat desires to grab the Quarter Pounders out of their arms. Think about the backlash that may ensue if someone really tried.
Nonetheless, merely slicing meat consumption in half would go away Individuals consuming as a lot animal flesh as, say, the Danes. And going from the equal of a every day Quarter Pounder to 1 each different day would slash diet-related carbon emissions by 43%, in accordance with a latest Oxford examine. It might additionally scale back the incidence of weight problems, most cancers and different sicknesses. Individuals even inform pollsters they’re keen to eat much less meat — although apparently they’re not in any rush to take action.
Actually, international meat consumption retains transferring within the different course, as shoppers in fast-growing rising economies achieve spending energy. Individuals are likely to eat richer as they develop into wealthier, which usually consists of shoveling down extra meat. In nations the place malnutrition is excessive, this might be a very good factor. However folks in richer nations might stand to eat a lot much less.
There are steps the agriculture business and governments can take to restrict the local weather affect, from curbing meals waste and air pollution to boosting productiveness. However such supply-side fixes can solely go to date. Eventually we’ll should confront the demand facet. Therefore the concept of a meat tax, an more and more scorching matter in tutorial circles and Europe. New Zealand is the one nation to date to take the leap, form of, with a methane tax on farms that takes impact in 2025, but it surely most likely gained’t be the final. Even Denmark, which eats half the meat of the U.S., is contemplating it.
The most important objection to such a tax is that it will hit poor shoppers hardest. However a latest examine within the journal Nature Meals suggests its results might simply be offset by giving these households tax rebates and by decreasing taxes on vegatables and fruits. In fact, that may fly in Denmark, however will probably be a harder carry within the U.S. Gen Z assist for meat tax is robust, however the remainder of the nation isn’t having it.
Right here, a less complicated first step might be to cease paying farms to supply extra meat. Between 2014 and 2020, the U.S. authorities spent $10.7 billion per yr on direct subsidies to the meat and dairy business, in contrast with simply $13 million on plant-based and different meat substitutes, a latest Stanford College examine discovered.
In fact, not taxing meat will depart a whole lot of billions in oblique subsidies on the desk. Meat costs ought to be 20% to 60% larger globally to account for all of the environmental injury they do, in accordance with one examine. An especially tough, back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests this quantities to an oblique present to meat producers of between $402.5 billion and $642 billion per yr.
As politically painful because it could be, governments have to discover a option to redirect that largesse to more healthy, much less carbon-intensive meals, together with meat substitutes. They may strive empowering shoppers by declaring that consuming much less meat is a straightforward, tangible factor folks can do in the event that they’re feeling powerless within the face of an more and more chaotic local weather. If that fails, then we might have to interrupt out the tax.
Mark Gongloff is a Bloomberg Opinion editor and columnist. ©2023 Bloomberg. Distributed by Tribune Content material Company.