October 5, 2023

California Republicans’ assist for former President Donald Trump seems to be rising, in response to a brand new ballot — and that’s a very optimistic signal for his marketing campaign given how the state will assign its bevy of delegates this yr.

Trump is the popular candidate for 55% of doubtless Republican voters surveyed in late August by the Berkeley Institute of Authorities Research — taken after he was indicted in Georgia for alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

That’s an 11% enhance from Berkeley IGS’s Might survey — and would set off the California Republican Occasion’s new rule allotting all of its 169 delegates to whichever candidate can safe a majority (50% plus 1) of the statewide vote within the upcoming major election.

Compared, 16% of doubtless Republican voters picked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 7% former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and 4% tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

A February Berekely IGS ballot discovered 37% of registered Republican voters most well-liked DeSantis whereas 29% most well-liked Trump.

“Even with all of his authorized troubles, former President Donald Trump’s lead within the Republican major appears to be like extra like what one expects to see from an incumbent operating for reelection than for a candidate in an open seat,” mentioned IGS co-director Eric Schickler. “Whereas it stays early, it has to frustrate Trump’s opponents that his lead has grown even amid his sequence of indictments.”

Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley, says the ballot exhibits excellent news for Trump — so long as he can preserve that assist amongst California’s GOP voters throughout the March 5 major.

“The state occasion clearly did this to assist him, however now Iowa and New Hampshire are much more essential,” mentioned Schnur, noting the momentum from successful these early major states coupled with California’s delegates would make Trump “unstoppable.”

CAGOP modified its guidelines in late July. If no contender can safe a majority, then the delegates — essentially the most from any state — might be distributed proportionally.  Beforehand, candidates might win three delegates per congressional district, which might make them concentrate on sure pockets of the state.